4/20/2023 0 Comments New lynn haven parkMost operational models used by the NHC (e.g., GFS, UKMET, HWRF, etc.) were in good agreement that the storm would intensify into possibly a category 1 hurricane or stronger before landfall. The forecast indicated the development of this storm into a high-end Tropical Storm before landfall (Figure 2).įigure 2: Track forecast as indicated from the first advisory issued on Hurricane MichaelĪs the system continued to organize, the threat for a potentially dangerous hurricane landfall somewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast increased. NHC issued it’s first advisory on the system, Potential Tropical Cyclone 14, that would eventually become Hurricane Michael. By 5:00 pm EDT on 6 October satellite imagery and surface observations indicated the low pressure area had become better defined and the convection more organized. As the system moved northwest into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, it produced torrential rainfall and gusty winds across portions of Central America. Although surface pressure was relatively low compared to the systems environment, highly unfavorable upper-level winds hampered the quick development of this storm.ĭuring the next two days, convection associated with the tropical disturbance continued to increase and become better organized. At that time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) characterized the system as disorganized and having little convective activity. Michael originated from an area of enhanced convection associated with a broad area of low pressure that developed in the southwestern Caribbean (approximately 200 miles north of Panama). Visible Satellite Loop of Hurricane Michael The widespread catastrophic damage spread well inland as Hurricane Michael remained at category 3 strength into southwest Georgia. ![]() The storm caused catastrophic damage from wind and storm surge, particularly in the Panama City Beach to Mexico Beach to Cape San Blas areas. Based on minimum pressure, Michael is the fourth most-powerful hurricane to hit the United States, behind the Labor Day Hurricane (1935), Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Andrew (1992), and the most powerful storm to impact the Florida Panhandle in recorded history. Michael made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle with maximum sustained wind speed of 140 knots (161 mph) and a minimum pressure 919 mb. After a 2-day long intensification period over the eastern Gulf, Michael made landfall (Figure 1) as an unprecedented (for the region) category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). However, after approximately a week of slow development, the system moved into warm Gulf of Mexico waters and rapidly intensified into a major hurricane as it moved north towards the Florida Panhandle. Hurricane Michael started as typical weak October Caribbean tropical system.
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